Newsletter 2nd Quarter 2009
MONDAY, JULY 6, 2009
CoreStates 2009 Q2 Review & Outlook
Encouraging as these numbers are, even they don’t fully represent the resurgence of investor enthusiasm as the quarter’s economic measures began to indicate a moderation in the rate of national and worldwide economic decline. This growing perception led to sharp rebounds in the more speculative areas of the markets, with small capitalization US stocks (Russell 2000) advancing nearly 21% and reaching positive territory for the year. The NASDAQ gained 20%, bringing its year-to-date gain to over 16%. Emerging nations’ stock markets were even stronger, averaging gains of 25% for the quarter and year-to-date. The dollar also reflected the moderation of concerns for the US economy, adding another 10% to the returns of the average US investor in foreign markets.
Improving economic prospects were also noted by bond investors, as were the heightened prospects for inflation resulting from the burgeoning Federal deficits. This served to elevate yields on the 10-year Treasury from 3% at the beginning of the quarter to about 3.5%. Other areas of the bond market generally benefitted from diminishing credit quality concerns, offsetting the modest rise in interest rates on Treasury securities and holding yields generally steady.
Commodities prices also reflected growing investor confidence in recovery and fears of inflation, as broad commodities indexes advanced in the area of 15% for the quarter. Crude oil led the way, gaining more than 40% in a May-June surge from $52 to $72 per barrel. Precious metals also moved higher with gold, for instance, gaining nearly 7%.
So, is the perfect economic storm finally weakening and clear sailing ahead? We at CoreStates believe the worst of the financial crisis is over, but we see three areas of likely investor misperceptions. We believe investors are early with their enthusiasm for economic recovery, are probably equally early regarding their fears of imminent, rapidly increasing inflation, but are also too sanguine regarding the longer term implications of the sea change taking place in the core of our economic system.
In our view, a slower-than-expected recovery is likely to produce at least a few months of disappointing economic measures near term, which should also defer the inevitable inflationary effects of current fiscal and monetary policies. These countervailing factors should keep most markets quite volatile, but largely within their recent trading ranges. The greater concern for prudent investors is the eventual impact of the massive increase in the role of the Federal government in our economy, and the reduced incentives to the private sector from ever-higher taxes on our most productive enterprises and individuals and ever-broader social programs for the less productive. And, this is before the impact of a national health plan, vast changes in social security, or the remaking of our public educational system.
Our governmental structure was designed with several checks and balances, a key one of which is the requirement for a 60% majority in the Senate to be assured of passing key legislation. The expectation of our founding fathers was that, to reach this level, legislation would have to be tempered by a wide cross-section of political viewpoints. Today’s Democrat super-majority, led by a President many consider the most anti-business in our history, creates a level of uncertainty for investors that is unprecedented. Although we maintain our long-held belief that it is unwise to bet against the resilience of the US economy, we also believe it is imperative in the current environment to spread those bets widely, maintain a sizeable cushion of liquidity, and be prepared to react decisively as our new economic reality takes shape.